US CPI Falls Below Expectations, US Dollar Declines, Metals Rise Across the Board; LME Copper, LME Zinc, and SHFE Zinc Gain Over 1% [Overnight Market]

SMM, May 14:

Metal Market:

Overnight, metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally rose. LME copper, LME zinc, and SHFE zinc all increased by over 1%, with LME copper up 1.09%, LME zinc up 1.51%, and SHFE zinc up 1.57%. The gains of other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina futures contract rose by 1.69%.

The ferrous metals series generally rose, with iron ore up 0.83% and stainless steel up 0.73%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 0.34% and coke by 0.75%. The gains of other metals were all within 1%.

In precious metals, overnight COMEX gold rose by 0.82% and COMEX silver by 1.43%, recording a four-day winning streak. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.36% and SHFE silver by 0.4%.

Overnight closing prices as of 6:48 a.m. on May 14

》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic:

The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement on adjusting tariff hike measures on imported goods originating from the US. Upon approval by the State Council, starting from 12:01 a.m. on May 14, 2025, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council adjusted the tariff hike measures on imported goods originating from the US, reducing the tariff hike rate specified in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 from 34% to 10%, suspending the implementation of the 24% tariff hike rate for 90 days, and halting the implementation of the tariff hike measures specified in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025.

US Dollar:

Overnight, the US dollar index fell by 0.8%, giving back most of its gains from the previous trading day, mainly due to inflation data falling below market expectations. The US Department of Labor stated that CPI rose by 0.2% last month, lower than the 0.3% expected by economists, and the consumer price index fell by 0.1% in March. Despite this, inflation may rebound in the coming months due to higher costs of imported goods resulting from US tariffs. The easing of trade tensions has led market participants to lower their estimates of the likelihood of a recession and also reduced expectations for the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year. Financial markets expect the US Fed to resume interest rate cuts in September. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Other Currencies:

The US dollar fell by 0.57% against the Japanese yen to 147.6 yen, after a significant gain of over 2% the previous day. The US dollar fell by 0.54% against the Swiss franc to 0.841, after climbing 1.6% on Monday.

The British pound rose by 0.95% against the US dollar to 1.3297 US dollars, on track for its largest single-day gain since April 28.

Macro:

Today, data such as the US May IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) and the final annual German April CPI will be released.

Additionally, US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech titled "Central Bank Research," and US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson will speak on the economic outlook. US Secretary of State Rubio will participate in the informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers from May 14 to 16 to discuss NATO's security priorities, including increasing defense investments and ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

Crude Oil:

Overnight, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US crude oil up 2.71% and Brent crude oil up 2.52%, both recording four consecutive days of gains, primarily driven by easing trade tensions and better-than-expected inflation reports.

The two benchmark contracts rose by about 4% or more in the previous trading session after China and the US reached a consensus to significantly reduce import tariffs within at least 90 days, which also boosted Wall Street stocks and the US dollar. "We didn't participate in the rally like other markets did yesterday, so we're catching up today," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. "This morning's data also gives the US Fed room to possibly start taking some action."

Goldman Sachs stated in a report that due to the recent easing of trade tensions, the bank sees upside risks to its price forecasts for Brent crude oil and US crude oil in 2025 and 2026. The bank believes that Brent crude oil and US crude oil prices are expected to average $60/barrel and $56/barrel, respectively, for the remainder of 2025, with upside risks of $3-4 per barrel, and $56/barrel and $52/barrel, respectively, for 2026.

However, Goldman Sachs noted that the reduced risk of a recession also lowers the likelihood of a significant drop in oil prices, although robust supply growth outside of US shale oil could still push prices sharply lower. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) plan to increase oil exports in May and June, which may limit the upside potential for oil prices. (Wenhua Comprehensive)